Just two days before Slovakia’s parliamentary elections in September 2023, an audio recording appeared on Facebook featuring the voices of Michal Šimečka, leader of the liberal Progressive Slovakia party, and Monika Tódová from the daily newspaper Denník N. In the clip, the pair discussed how to rig the election – in part by buying votes from the country’s marginalized Roma minority. 

 

But the voices were fake: The audio showed signs of being manipulated using AI, according to the fact-checking department of the AFP news agency. However, since the recording was posted 48 hours before the polls opened, it fell under a moratorium in which media outlets and politicians must stay silent. Under Slovakia’s election rules, the post was difficult to debunk in time. On top of this, Meta, the company that owns Facebook, had a manipulated media policy that dictated that only fake videos – in which someone’s words have been edited – go against its rules. In this case, since the post was audio, it was fair game.

 

As artificial intelligence gained major strides in 2023, it played an increasingly important role in politics. While AI touches many domains – chatbots, generative AI like ChatGPT, microtargeting voters – the creation of deepfakes is particularly troubling. Deepfakes are highly realistic and convincing fake videos or audio recordings produced using sophisticated AI techniques. Deepfakes present a real and present threat, as they have the potential to spread misinformation and manipulate public opinion on a large scale.

 

In 2023, populism triumphed in several countries, from Slovakia to the Netherlands and Argentina, while in Poland and Spain, it was narrowly halted. In 2024’s elections in the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom, important seats are up for grabs – and a strong populist breakthrough in these regions could fundamentally change the political landscape.

 

AI is currently being used by populist campaigns to manipulate the truth. As AI is a neutral technology, actors can create content without regard for factual accuracy. Populist forces, often leaning on persuasive messaging, can use deepfakes to create and disseminate messages that resonate with their audience, regardless of their factual basis. 

 

This makes AI a powerful tool in the hands of those who want to shape public opinion without being constrained by the truth. For instance, in the U.S., the Republican Party’s presidential candidate race of 2023 already saw the use of AI-generated images against former president Donald Trump. In a campaign video for his rival candidate, Ron DeSantis, Trump was criticized for not firing Anthony Fauci, the chief medical advisor responsible for the U.S.’s COVID-19 response.

 

Populist strategies often involve sensational or shocking content to garner attention, sway public opinion, or discredit opponents. And these tactics are proliferating in the digital age. 

 

Consider an online endorsement video where Hillary Clinton appears to praise Ron DeSantis, and another instance where Joe Biden seems to unleash a harsh tirade against a transgender person. Both were deepfakes – highly realistic yet entirely fabricated videos created by AI algorithms. By creating such fabricated videos, populists quickly disseminate provocative content that aligns with their agenda, irrespective of its truthfulness. These deepfakes, portraying prominent figures in unexpected or controversial actions, serve as perfect tools for populist campaigns that thrive on stirring emotions and creating divisive narratives. Using AI, these groups blur the lines between reality and fiction, presenting a potent weapon in the arsenal of those who favor ‘alternative facts’ over objective truth.

 

AI-generated content can use social media platforms to spread messages. During Turkey’s presidential elections in May 2023, a vast pro-government media ecosystem and armies of Twitter bots flooded the information space in favor of President Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party, or AKP. One widely circulated video consisted of clips spliced together to falsely depict support from a banned Kurdish militant group for opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

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In Poland, a clip was circulated on X (formerly Twitter) about Donald Tusk, the leader of the Civic Platform (PO) and former Prime Minister, announcing that he would not fulfill the electoral promises, garnering 280K views. By manipulating a real Tusk speech, it appeared real – even though the clip ended with Tusk speaking in German.

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dangers of deepfakes

AI-generated disinformation campaigns can also be used for smear campaigns. The overwhelming majority of non-consensual deepfakes, for instance, use sexual imagery to target women, often with the goal of tarnishing their reputation and pushing them out of the public sphere. For instance, Nina Jankowicz, an American disinformation expert, was a target of pornographic deepfakes, part of a broader campaign against her work and person. These sexualized deepfakes represent a twisted evolution of a much older practice – the non-consensual distribution of intimate images of female activists.

 

In polarized societies, deepfakes are particularly effective. By creating shocking content, deepfakes can sway undecided or moderate voters – who are critical in deciding close elections. They also amplify polarization, as they can depict opponents in false, damaging scenarios, reinforcing prejudices. By manipulating perceptions and reinforcing biases, deepfakes are powerful tools for exacerbating polarization.

 

Awareness is growing. According to a Luminate survey, a significant majority of citizens in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom expressed concern about the potential impact of AI and deepfake technology on elections. Although many acknowledged their lack of understanding of these tools, more than 70% of British and German citizens who did understand AI and deepfake technology were worried about the threat these technologies pose to elections. In France, 57% of respondents shared this view. 

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easier content creation

Deepfake technology is just one dimension of AI’s possibilities. Another is the ease of content creation. Previously, producing campaign materials fell to campaign teams – but the process that started with Web 2.0, where user-generated content became more prevalent, is reaching new levels. Practically anyone will be able to produce large amounts of content, of passable quality. In the past, if someone wanted to create an image depicting one of the populists’ frequent and favored fantasies, where the corrupt politician is chased away by the people, it required considerable skill, effort, and talent. Today, you simply input this prompt – “politician chased away by people in a Marvel Comics style” – and AI generates new content in an instant.

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This explosion of content will further blur the boundaries between reality and falsehood, in the battle for finite human attention – when the most eye-catching content gets noticed. The scandalous, shocking content produced by deepfakes is easily consumeable and emotionally-charged, making it more likely to be shared quickly and widely on social media. In contrast, rational and fact-based arguments often require more time and thought to understand and therefore may capture less attention. They are also less likely to go viral.

 

Against this, the arsenal of traditional political communication fades, and the rapid, widespread reach facilitated by new media formats dominates. While traditional TV and legacy media still play a role, with editors in newsrooms filtering and curating content, the trend is increasingly towards social media platforms like X, Facebook, TikTok, and YouTube shaping the political agenda. These platforms, with their vast reach and quick dissemination capabilities, provide an ideal breeding ground for deepfakes to hijack the political narrative in a fast, straightforward manner.

 

Social media’s lack of editorial oversight allows deepfakes to spread rapidly, often reaching millions before their authenticity can be checked. This leads to sensational or false content going viral, influencing political discourse and public opinion. The dissemination and reception of political messages increasingly occurs in the digital space, through algorithmically-regulated platforms, where grabbing attention and creating viral effects are the main priorities.

 

This poses significant challenges for democratic societies. Accurate information is essential for informed decision-making, especially during elections and key policy discussions. However, the spread of misinformation and disinformation, including deepfakes, can mislead citizens, leading to poor decisions and skewed perceptions. This not only impacts voting behavior and public opinion but also erodes trust in democratic institutions. Such a trend fosters cynicism and disengagement, potentially escalating into societal polarization. Ultimately, this undermines the democratic process, which relies on transparent and truthful discourse.

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Embracing the New Media Landscape

Politicians must adapt to a new media environment: the path to political success in 2024 requires creative use of digital media, reflecting the opportunities presented by AI, and effective collaboration with influencers. Active presence and effective communication are necessary in social media, especially on platforms favored by younger generations, such as TikTok – while prioritizing ethical issues related to AI technologies and disinformation. They must also find a balance between traditional media and new media platforms, employing different communication strategies to reach various audiences.

 

As populism gains strength, progressive leaders must continue to organize communities, both online and offline, helping them rediscover values that are now under threat.

 

A sense of support and solidarity can help restore and more fairly reorganize the overturned world order. These desires and energies are still present in European societies. However, if the democratic side fails to address these desires for fairness, security, and preservation of the accustomed way of life, the populist side is ready to offer deceitful, yet tempting, alternatives that can severely distort these values.

 

a path forward

Let’s not deny it – political organizations and NGOs desperately need funds to cover media politicization, advertising, and campaign expenses. But perhaps even more importantly, political micro-donations can also serve to revive and revitalize relationships between organizations and parties.

 

This revolution has begun in Europe, offering citizens the opportunity to directly support the political forces and causes they believe in. For organizations, it provides an opportunity to reach out to voters and strengthen bonds that have loosened or even disappeared in the era of populism. Such financing can contribute to the creation of a more democratic, inclusive political culture where supporters actively participate in political processes. This direct support can help the democratic side communicate its messages more effectively and better meet the needs of society.

 

A comprehensive approach is key. This includes:

 

Organizing communities for greater grassroots participation. Building deeper relationships with various societal groups is crucial. This involves listening to diverse voices and integrating their concerns into the democratic agenda, creating a more inclusive and representative political landscape.

 

Employing smart digital actions for effective online engagement. These include targeted social media campaigns and digital town halls, which can amplify voices and messages, reaching a broader audience efficiently. 

 

Harnessing the power of political micro-donations. Micro-donations not only fuel these initiatives financially but also strengthen the bond between supporters and their causes.

 

These strategies collectively empower individuals, making them feel more connected and involved in the political process. By combining these elements, democratic forces can effectively counter populist narratives with a unified message of participation, inclusion, and progress. Whether the significant developments of 2024 will point in this direction – we will soon see.